Another year of me staying up definitely too late on a weekday to watch the Golden Globes, but also another year of seeing people I love win, and big shocks when some don’t. This year was a fairly predictable one, with a lot of pretty guaranteed winners ahead of the ceremony. However, we also had a few major surprises, at least based on what I thought would happen.
So how well did I predict things this year?
Best Motion Picture – Drama
My Prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water
Winner: The Fabelmans
Everything was going along pretty safely for most of the evening (as you will see most of my predictions were correct) but then all of a sudden, right at the very end The Fabelmans decided to turn up to the party.
This genuinely surprised me. While it’s a movie that a lot of people are enjoying, I’ve not seen many say it’s their best film of the year, more like top 5. There was more interesting choices in this category, artistically or technically and this feels very safe. It’s a movie about making movies. It’s an autobiography. It’s Spielberg! I think he’s got a lot of goodwill with voters, and Hollywood loves movies about themselves.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
My Prediction: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
I’m not as shocked with this one, as even though I was sure Everything Everywhere was a lock in for this award, Banshees was the one I did say could potentially beat it. I’m not mad at it, because it was a beautiful movie, but it’s not what I wanted.
Everything Everywhere losing does make me nervous for the rest of the awards calendar. I think there’s a danger that it’s been hyped up too much going into the season so people are starting to turn on it. We’ll have to see how the BAFTAs and the SAGs go but an Oscars sweep is maybe looking less likely sadly.
Best Actor – Drama
My Prediction: Austin Butler – Elvis
Winner: Austin Butler – Elvis
Some people were shocked by this one, calling it an upset for Brendan Fraser. Obviously, this is what I guessed based on Fraser’s feelings toward the globes so I’m not shocked.
But above that, this really is well deserved. Butler’s performance was so performative and captivated so many people he needs recognition for it. He transformed into Elvis so much that he still sounds like him. He may just be a frontrunner for the Oscar now!
Best Actress – Drama
My Prediction: Cate Blanchett – Tár
Winner: Cate Blanchett – Tár
No surprise here. The great Cate keeps on greating. There’s not really much to say about her win because she did an Anthony Hopkins and didn’t turn up. She’s maybe the greatest actress working today, I’ve never not seen her put in a good performance.
The only question now is will she beat Michelle Yeoh for Best Actress in March and get herself a third Oscar. It really is a two-horse race between them at this point.
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
My Prediction: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Winner: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Both comedy lead wins were pretty much guaranteed, this was Farrell’s from the get go. None of the other performances in this category were as notable this year, despite a few of them being very good, and Farrell is the only one getting this kind of attention, and will likely the only one of them nominated at the Oscars. Whether he can win there over the drama leads is another story.
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy
My Prediction: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Winner: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Again, this was Yeoh’s award from the moment she was nominated. As I’ve said she’s in a two horse race with Blanchett for the Oscar.
This is a long time coming for Yeoh, too long. Her speech highlighted as much, when she talked about her experience coming to Hollywood from Asia and the ignorance she faced, as well as the struggle to get roles and build the career she has now. It really makes you realize how hard she’s worked to get to this moment and what it means to her, and to the people in her community too who see her as this beacon of Asian representation. I hope the Academy were listening!
Best Supporting Actor
My Prediction: Key Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Winner: Key Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Ke Huy Quan was the one to beat for this award, even though I did say it could go to Brendan Gleeson. Quan seems to be sweeping this award at every turn so he’s definitely winning the Oscar.
And what makes that so magical is that Stephen Spielberg is in the room every time. It was really beautiful to see him able to thank Spielberg for starting his career as a child in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, and to in turn see Spielberg witness that kid he discovered live this moment of glory. It was real life movie magic. And he is going to make people cry for sure at the Oscars.
Best Supporting Actress
My Prediction: Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Winner: Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
This was a pleasant surprise. I discounted Angela Bassett because no one has ever won a major award for a performance in a Marvel movie, because the industry usually dismisses them as lowbrow. But for them to finally acknowledge that some people actually turn in some great performances in superhero movies is a big deal.
On the other hand I’m not sure whether this has more to do with recognizing the genre or the actress. Bassett is someone who is so beloved and who many consider understated by awards bodies, so her lauded performance in both Black Panther films might just be an excuse to give her her flowers, rather than a sign of how these films are going to be viewed in the future.
Best Director
My Prediction: James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water
Winner: Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
This is where The Fabelmans upset began! While Angela Bassett’s win pleasantly surprised me, this was more of a disappointing shock. I never really enjoy when someone who’s won a bunch of times wins again, because it’s not exciting, but I did predict that someone like that win this with Cameron so I guess I have no leg to stand on. I think the globes really like celebrity, and the incredibly famous Spielberg directing a movie about is own life is such a flashy narrative I see why they picked it for the win.
The film is getting shut out of a few other awards nominations already though, so this may the only place he’s going to come out on top. If that’s the case the. I guess it’s nice for him to get some recognition for it. But I’m still bored.
Best Screenplay
My Prediction: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Winner: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Like I predicted, I guess the golden globes really love scripts about Ireland!
In all seriousness, I think banshees is the most writingest movie in the bunch this season, so this is the award it certainly deserves to sweep.
Best Original Song
My Prediction: Lift Me Up – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Winner: Naatu Naatu – RRR
I was very close to guessing Naatu Naatu to win because RRR has gotten a lot of buzz. But I assumed that foreign films would not be favored outside of their own category (which RRR did not actually win in). Perhaps I perceived a bias that was not there. I’ll be looking to RRR to receive a few more wins as the season goes on; as well as Germany’s All Quiet on the Western Front, which has started showing up on a few shortlists too.
Best Animated Feature
My Prediction: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Winner: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
There was very little competition for Guillermo Del Toro in this category, as Disney didn’t put up much of a fight, so it was an easy win. But that shouldn’t undermine how deserving this film would be of winning in any other year.
I love how Del Toro felt so passionate about animation when he gave a speech, which is nice considering he’s someone who’s made his career in live action films who could easily see the new medium as an experiment rather than have deep respect for it. There seems to be a third Oscar in his future.
TV Wins
On the TV side of things, I was so happy to see Abbott Elementary win so many awards, especially Quinta Brunson for playing the lead, which she lost at the Emmys (although she did win there for writing). I was bummed that neither Sheryl Lee Ralph or Elizabeth Debicki won supporting actress but I’m sure they’ll both still be in the category next year, and this was Julia Garner’s last chance to win for Ozark.
Jennifer Coolidge winning was a such a beautiful moment. Much like Michelle Yeoh, her speech gave such a beautiful portrait of a woman who’s been working for a long time finally getting some recognition. Coolidge is such a lovable person it’s impossible not to be happy for her, and I can’t wait to see what’s next for her with this awards boost.
I also need to say how touching it was for Ryan Murphy, who was being given the Carol Burnett achievement award, to use his speech to not talk about his own achievements but to highlight and praise the LGBTQ+ (particularly POC) talent that he’s worked with and inspire him. Making sure MJ Rodriquez got the ovation that she didn’t get to have when she won and made history last year was a particularly beautiful moment,
So 7 out of 12 correct isn’t as good as I hoped I would fo, but it is exactly the same amount as I got right last year. What this tells me is that the globes continue to be fairly predictable but a little bit wild. I think we’re beginning to see a picture of how the Oscar nominations will shake up next month and at least a few sure fire wins.