This weekend it’s finally time for the 2023 Oscars, and the end of this year’s awards season. Unfortunately for me, I will be away when they air so I probably won’t get to watch them live, but that won’t stop me from predicting who I think will take home the gold, as well as discussing what I think of this year’s nominations.
Best Picture
Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
At the beginning of awards season, it was thought that Everything Everywhere All At Once was the front-runner, but then it missed a couple of major awards, namely the Golden Globe and BAFTA. However in recent weeks it’s been clearing up award after award, so I think it’s safe to say that it’s back on top to take home Best Picture. I think it should, it’s a brilliant film with the box office to back it up and it reflects the current landscape of cinema as well as pop culture, with its themes and its cast.
The one movie people cite as a potential upset is The Banshees of Inisherin, but that couldn’t even win Best Film that eh BAFTAs as a ‘British’ film (yes I know its Irish but that’s how they categorized it). The Fabelmans won at the Golden Globes but hasn’t really won anywhere else, and All Quiet on the Western Front won at the BAFTAs, but they seemed to be obsessed with it in a way that the American industry is not. All Quiet has maybe the biggest chance of an upset.
Best Director
Nominees: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once, Todd Field – Tár, Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin, Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness, Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Much like their movie, the Daniels have been sweeping the recent director awards and seem to be a shoe-in to win here, and it would be well deserved. The BAFTA winner isn’t nominated here and Speilberg won the Golden Globe, but I feel like that was based more on his celebrity than anything else. The Fabelmans is a great film, but it isn’t better than anything else he’s already won an Oscar for.
Best Actor
Nominees: Austin Butler – Elvis, Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Paul Mescal – Aftersun, Bill Nighy – Living
This is a tough one to call, as it’s been flip-flopping between Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser, with both winning multiple Best Actor awards. They both also have different narratives that have won in the past. Butler is a big flashy breakout performance, and Fraser if a working actor who’s struggled in Hollywood and is now making a comeback.
In the absence of knowing which way it’s going to go, I’ll choose who I would give it to, which is Brendan Fraser. The Whale is a movie that made me cry all the way home from the cinema, in a good way. It resonated with me, and a big part of that was Fraser’s performance.
I know some people have issues with him wearing a fat suit and the negativity around being overweight. There is definitely a wider conversation to be had around that. While I appreciate those criticisms, and I think they’re valid, personally I don’t think they should take away from the performance Fraser gives, which is a fully rounded character and not just a stereotype or a mockery.
Best Actress
Nominees: Cate Blanchett – Tár, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans, Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once
I could write a whole article about this category, because when the nominations came out I was very angry.
You may already be aware of the Andrea Riseborough situation, but here’s a rundown. She was not nominated in any major precursor awards (bar independent spirit), she had not been on the campaign trail like all her fellow nominees and To Leslie is a movie that came out last march; barely anyone saw it. In the week of Oscar nomination voting, she or her team decided they wanted a nomination, so they called in favours from all her famous (predominantly white) friends to suddenly talk about how amazing the film was and how she deserves it, as well as setting up private screenings. And she got it.
Now, this would be a genius move if not for the fact that there are two black women, Viola Davis and Daniele Deadwyler, who had been nominated almost everywhere else, and if not for Riseborough, one of them would have been here. Now Michelle Yeoh is the only woman of colour in a category that could have had three. You can call it identity politics all you want, but to me, this highlights how black women can do everything right, but white talent will always be favoured by the academy, even when they swoop in at the last moment.
Because of this apparent white bias, and the fact that she was picking up lots of awards, including BAFTA and Critics Choice, meant that I was certain Cate Blanchett would take this award. Now, I’ve said it a million times, I am a Blanchett Stan. She’s more than deserving of three Oscars, and I loved her performance in Tár. However, Michelle Yeoh has been an icon for so many years without the recognition she deserves, and it really feels like it’s her time. She has been making a recent comeback, beating Cate at both the SAG and independent spirit awards, meaning the race is now neck and neck. I’m not ready to put all my eggs in the Yeoh basket and risk disappointment so my head is saying this is still Blanchett’s to lose.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin, Bryan Tyree Henry – Causeway, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans, Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin, Key Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Where Best Actor and Actress are still up in the air, it’s a foregone conclusion that Key Huy Quan is winning Supporting Actor. He’s cleaned up everywhere besides BAFTA (which was weird) and has the best awards narrative of the year. Having left Hollywood due to the lack of roles for Asian actors, and coming back for a film with a predominantly Asian cast, that made lots of money and is probably going to win Best Picture. All his speeches have been so beautiful and he’s gotten so much love, it would actually be quite depressing if he didn’t win.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Hong Chau – The Whale, Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin, Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once, Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once
This is one of the craziest categories I’ve ever experienced; it seems like someone different is winning it every time. Angela Bassett won Golden Globe and Critics Choice, Kerry Condon won BAFTA, Jamie Lee Curtis won SAG and Stephanie Hsu won at Independent Spirit (although that was a slightly different category). If I went with personal choice, I would say it should go to either Hong Chau or Stephanie Hsu, as they were my favourite performances of the group.
Based on how industry voters have voted id say it’s between Condon and Curtis, and I’m leaning towards Curtis because she also has the narrative of an industry veteran who has never been rewarded before. Although Bassett has that exact same narrative and her performance is objectively much stronger.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
I think this one is firmly between The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All At Once. If they are going to give Best Picture/Director to EEAAO I think they will probably give this award to Banshees so that it goes home with something, especially as the writing is the most impressive part of that film. However, most Best Picture winners also win screenplay so precedent would seem to suggest that EEAAO might take this after all.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
The screenplay categories are somewhat infamously used as a pseudo-consolation prize for writer-directors (often women and POC) who have no shot at winning Best Director. That’s partly why I expect Martin McDonagh to win Original Screenplay. Because we, unfortunately, have yet another year with no female nominees for Best Director, I feel like the academy will (and should) give Adapted Screenplay to Sarah Polley for Women Talking, which is a beautifully written film that she deserves her flowers for.
Her biggest competition is definitely All Quiet on the Western Front, which was a runaway hit at the BAFTAS, so it depends how much this academy liked that film.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red
Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio Is winning this. It’s swept it at every award, and each time Del Toro gives a passionate speech about animation as an art form, which lends itself totally to an Oscars moment. None of the other films, despite being good, really come close to the level of art and gravitas given to this film, and frankly, it’s refreshing when we have a year where they don’t just blindly give it to Pixar.
Best International Feature
Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl
There’s a trend in recent years wherein one of the International Feature nominees gets nominated in several other categories, meaning it’s obviously going to win this one. This year that film is All Quiet on the Western Front Which has 9 nominations including Best Picture.
I’d say it’s deserving, though its not that different from any other recent war film I’ve seen. The reason it’s special is the German perspective it offers on the first world war, from a German director, which is a side we don’t often see. I don’t know if it will win as many Oscars as it did BAFTAs as I think proximity to the war in Ukraine has made this film take on a bigger impact for European audiences than it will for the American one, but I think it will certainly walk away with more than one Oscar.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris
The first Black Panther won this award because of its beautiful and ground-breaking afro futuristic costumes, so I think it’s fair to say that Ruth Carter could win again for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Not only did she equal the beauty of the original for now Wakandan costumes, but she also had to design a whole new set of looks based on Mesoamerican history for the Talokan characters.
If they don’t want to give it to Carter again, I can see them picking Elvis cos they love period pieces with recreations of iconic looks.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale
They tend to usually go for the film with the most prosthetic work in this category in recent years, but this year both Elvis and The Whale have that. I think Elvis has the better shot because it seems to be the film that the Academy liked more, and there are just so many more characters that they had to create in a period style.
Best Original Score
Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans
Personally, I would love this to go to Everything Everywhere All At Once, because I really like the Avant-guard style of Son Lux and how it added to the chaotic nature of the film. However, I think Babylon is going to take it for its catchy 1920’s soundtrack. It’s the one film I haven’t seen, because I wasn’t really that interested in it, so I can’t speak on what it adds to the movie, but it did get stuck in my head when I watched the trailer.
Best Original Song
Nominees: Applause – Tell it like a Woman, Hold MY Hand – Top Gun: Maverick, Lift Me Up – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Naatu Naatu – RRR, This is a Life – Everything Everywhere All At Once
I’d love Rihanna to take this, because it’s Rihanna, but also because I think Lift Me Up was such a touching tribute to Chadwick Boseman. However, it’s hard to deny the catchiness and fun that Naatu Naatu brings to the table, which is why I think it’s most likely to take it, as they did at the Golden Globes. If they perform it at the ceremony, everyone is going to be having fun.
This is truly quite an unpredictable year in so many categories, with no one really sweeping the season in any category. I’m expecting a few surprises and upsets, which is very exciting, and makes me all the more gutted I’m not going to see it unfold. But when I’m home I will be sure to discuss everything that happens.